Diablo Valley Real Estate
January 2020 Report
This report focuses on the cities of Diablo Valley, but sometimes includes other nearby cities to provide greater context to the market.
Generally speaking, after years of solid appreciation rates, annual 2019 Bay Area median home prices went down a little bit, went up a little bit or basically remained unchanged as compared to 2018.
For 2020, economist Ken Rosen at UC Berkeley has said he expects the Bay Area median price to remain basically flat, within a general range of up or down 2% - in other words, similar to what happened last year. We can’t predict the future, but that certainly doesn’t sound unreasonable, and happily avoids the sensationalism of many other media-grabbing forecasts.
Median sales prices are generalities and not exact measurements of changes in fair market value. They can be affected by a number of factors and are sometimes subject to anomalous fluctuations. This is especially true of very expensive communities with relatively low numbers of sales, and very wide ranges of sales prices: Outsized year-over-year changes should be taken with a grain of salt until substantiated over the longer term.
How median prices apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
If Diablo Valley was a stand-alone county, its median home sales price would be somewhat higher than that of Santa Clara County, though, of course, median prices vary significantly between its component cities.
Bay Area Market Sizes
By a number of sales, Contra Costa is one of the big 3 counties in the Bay Area. Diablo Valley and Lamorinda constitute the most affluent major markets in the county.
Bay Area Markets for Homes of $5 Million+
Diablo Valley is not one of the larger markets for homes selling for $5,000,000 and above, which is not due to any deficiency in the size or quality of its homes, or the affluence of its neighborhoods. It is simply due to the fact that one gets much more for one's dollar here than in SF or Silicon Valley. Its ultra-luxury homes and estates can sell at a 50% discount, or more, to the prices of similar homes in those markets.
Median Home Value Trends since 1996 by City
This chart is an estimated calculation of median home price trends by an algorithm created for that purpose. Neither Blackhawk nor Diablo is not broken out as a separate market by this data source. As always, these numbers should be considered very general approximations of prices in complex markets containing homes of widely varying size and quality.
Market Seasonality: New Listings Coming on Market
The market is now deep into its seasonal plunge in activity, which hits its nadir in December. (This chart is updated through October. November saw its usual big drop in new listing activity.)
Market Dynamics by City - Diablo Valley & Lamorinda
The next 4 charts comparing city statistics also include the 3 cities of Lamorinda for greater context of the affluent markets east of the East Bay ridge. As mentioned in previous reports, market dynamics throughout the Bay Area are often - but not always - separated by price segment as much as by city location. More expensive segments not unusually have somewhat softer supply and demand dynamics.